Thursday, September 26, 2013

Guest of the Stable: Tim Occhipinti's mysterious 'resignation'

The following is a guest piece from a Hoboken resident who wishes to remain anonymous

Lets get a little mathematical here. For Tim to quit his job he needs the expected payoff to be the same as his current job. Lets assume he makes $75K a year. For the election there are two possible outcomes, he loses and makes zero or he wins and makes $120K (ballpark).
   
Now the logical person has to assign probabilities to each outcome to get an expected return. So Tim's equation is the percentage chance of losing (equals zero) plus the percentage chance of winning multiplied by 120K = 75K. 

So it is factored down to $120K multiplied by the percentage chance of winning = $75K. 

And solving for the probability implies that Tim thinks there is a 62.5% chance that he wins otherwise it is illogical to quit your job. 

And if anyone believes there is a 62.5% chance Tim wins they need their head checked. 
Therefore it is illogical for him to run and the reason he quit is some other factor. 

The math is simple but makes sense. 


This is Albert Einstein.  This is NOT Tim Occhipinti.
A basic math model deconstructs the notion Occhipinti "resigned" from his job
 to run in the final days of the Hoboken mayoral election.

Talking Ed Note: Since this is a mathematical donation to MSV, we'll bend the guest piece rules in this instance to say this modeling stratagem is completely beyond Timmy Occhipinti's grasp.

So too is the idea the voting public would buy this obvious spin. MSV is hearing from all sides and the conclusion is the same: Occhipinti was shown the door likely for not clearing a decision to run for Hoboken mayor at Alliance Bernstein.

A new poll on why Timmy resigned his job is featured on the right side of the page.

Da Horsey will be doing additional homework on it too.  Thank you very much Hoboken math donor!

Update: Timmy Occhipinti invited to comment on yesterday's odd news at his last day with Alliance Bernstein declined saying it was "inappropriate."