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Thursday, September 26, 2013

Guest of the Stable: Tim Occhipinti's mysterious 'resignation'

The following is a guest piece from a Hoboken resident who wishes to remain anonymous

Lets get a little mathematical here. For Tim to quit his job he needs the expected payoff to be the same as his current job. Lets assume he makes $75K a year. For the election there are two possible outcomes, he loses and makes zero or he wins and makes $120K (ballpark).
   
Now the logical person has to assign probabilities to each outcome to get an expected return. So Tim's equation is the percentage chance of losing (equals zero) plus the percentage chance of winning multiplied by 120K = 75K. 

So it is factored down to $120K multiplied by the percentage chance of winning = $75K. 

And solving for the probability implies that Tim thinks there is a 62.5% chance that he wins otherwise it is illogical to quit your job. 

And if anyone believes there is a 62.5% chance Tim wins they need their head checked. 
Therefore it is illogical for him to run and the reason he quit is some other factor. 

The math is simple but makes sense. 


This is Albert Einstein.  This is NOT Tim Occhipinti.
A basic math model deconstructs the notion Occhipinti "resigned" from his job
 to run in the final days of the Hoboken mayoral election.

Talking Ed Note: Since this is a mathematical donation to MSV, we'll bend the guest piece rules in this instance to say this modeling stratagem is completely beyond Timmy Occhipinti's grasp.

So too is the idea the voting public would buy this obvious spin. MSV is hearing from all sides and the conclusion is the same: Occhipinti was shown the door likely for not clearing a decision to run for Hoboken mayor at Alliance Bernstein.

A new poll on why Timmy resigned his job is featured on the right side of the page.

Da Horsey will be doing additional homework on it too.  Thank you very much Hoboken math donor!

Update: Timmy Occhipinti invited to comment on yesterday's odd news at his last day with Alliance Bernstein declined saying it was "inappropriate."

BREAKING: Timmy Occhipinti 'quits job' to chase mayor's seat

With only 40 days left in election race, Occhipinti says he quit job to campaign

Tim Occhipinti quit his help desk application support job at Alliance Bernstein he says to pursue the mayor's office according to a story on Hoboken Patch.

According to a campaign statement, he said:

"I am extremely committed to this election and I want the people of Hoboken to know that I am dedicated to them and will fight full-time for their point of view," Occhipinti said. "I am going to live the next few months on a very tight budget which is something every taxpayer understands too well and wishes City Hall did the same."

But according to the calendar there's only 50 40 days to the November election, less than two months!

Occhipinti who currently occupies the fourth ward council seat since 2010 is best known for his controversial election which featured 575 "campaign workers" - the vast majority all vote-by-mail participants on paper ballots as reported in the Hudson Reporter.

MSV reported on the "anomaly" earlier where leading into the election almost to a person 79 of 80 "campaign workers" had already voted by paper ballots.  That story was picked up by PolitickerNJ.

Occhipinti reportedly was earning $75,000 in his help desk role at Alliance Bernstein making the mayor's seat pay of less than 115K a potentially significant raise in his earnings.


Tim Occhipinti at the recent 1600 Park ribbon cutting ceremony.
Running for mayor is now his full time job.

As a 2010 candidate, Occhipinti said he would decline the City's medical benefit plan offered to council members.  It's unclear if he will continue to do so.

Occhipinti has been backed with thousands of dollars by business interests outside of Hoboken and massive support from the Beth Mason family.  He's being underwritten as part of developer Frank "Pupie" Raia's slate this election.

Correction: One active member of election season notes there's only 40 days left in the campaign - just over a month!

Assemblyman Ruben Ramos endorses Barbara Buono for Governor

Assemblyman Ruben Ramos who is running for mayor in Hoboken gave his support along with several other Latino elected officials for Barbara Buono for Governor as reported by the AP.

Ramos is mentioned in the story:

Assemblyman Ruben Ramos Jr., who represents Hoboken and teaches in Paterson, said he felt confident Buono would make education and public safety priorities if elected governor.

Ramos and his council slate are competing with the new entrant, the recent backed slate of developer Frank "Pupie" Raia and Councilwoman Beth Mason who inserted Tim Occhipinti for mayor moving himself down into a council at-large seat.

The Ramos campaign put out their platform detailed below:



Talking Ed Note: There's word the discussion of affordable housing and the controversial Vision 20/20 massive redevelopment has been removed from all literature and the Ramos campaign website.

MSV is not confirming this for the moment but it appears there is no platform detail on anything regarding Vision 20/20 or affordable housing.

HHA's controversial Director Carmelo Garcia who is suing the City of Hoboken, the mayor's husband and the former chair Jake Stuiver on a host of alleged charges including "ethnic cleansing" for failing to support his undocumented Vision 20/20 program was seen recently outside the Ramos Campaign headquarters.

Superintendent Dr. Toback reveals "serious incident" surrounding EMT program

Dr. Toback issued the following letter yesterday:



Dear Parents, Guardians, Caregivers, Students, and Concerned Citizens,

I write to you today in response to a recent article that appeared in the Hoboken Reporter regarding the Hoboken Public Schools Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) Program. I can imagine that most people reading the article have some serious questions about the motives of the administration for not continuing the program. The article included some relevant information, but not enough for residents to fully understand the decision.

A Wake Up Call
Quite a bit of attention was focused on the EMT program after a serious incident where the adult driver of the HHS ambulance was arrested for crimes of a sexual nature committed against students attending Hoboken High School. Although the EMT students were not the victims, you can appreciate that there was an extensive investigation and evaluation process. The arrest was a low point in the history of the program, but it was a wake up call in many ways and the incident revealed some other issues.

Facts Concerning the Discontinuation
You cannot be at two places at the same time.
One of the issues that arose was the dual nature of work for the employees involved with the EMT program. The driver mentioned above was also working as an instructional aide which means that when he was on an ambulance call, he was not working with the students he was assigned to work with and support. This is a liability for the district as students needing services would not be receiving those services in the consistent manner required.

Needs of Students

The teacher missed classes when there was an ambulance call and this had an impact on all of the students. The EMT students also missed class when there were calls. Now, with only a small number of students, the program would be excessively reliant on the same students missing class. The first priority for our students must be the core subjects like reading and math.


NJDOE Approval

After further evaluation of the program, it became clear that the district was running a career education program. The problem is that all career and technical education programs in New Jersey public schools must be approved by the New Jersey Department of Education. The EMT Program is not an approved program. Operating an unapproved program is a liability for the district.


Insurance Issues

We recently uncovered some insurance concerns that must be resolved. School districts are required to report to insurance companies any situations creating unique risk much like you would be required to do in order to be insured. The EMT program was never reported to our insurance carrier and they were not aware we had such a program. In our case, the district has a number of emergency medical students in training and as you can imagine, the cost to insure such a program would be quite high. Considering that the program is not operating with the required NJDOE approval, it may not be possible to insure the program. While the program may be covered in some respects by other insurance from the city or elsewhere, we do not have any written record of this and our insurance carrier has their own stand. Our current carrier, the New Jersey School Board Association Insurance Group, declined to cover the program and suggested we look elsewhere.


Cost

In order to operate the program properly, there would be a number of additional employees that we would need to hire including a driver who would be on stand-by to drive the ambulance. We would need to provide additional supervision for different events where supervision did not exist. The district would need a full time teacher. The cost for insurance is not determined at this point. It is safe to say that the program, with the additional employees, benefits, insurance, and all other costs, would be in the neighborhood of at least $150,000 and possibly as high as $200,000. That is quite an investment for a class that is not required.


Mythbusters
There are many other claims and optional explanations that have been offered regarding the decision to not continue the program. I have responded below to some claims and offered relevant facts.


There are many more students interested in the program.

The enrollment situation is very simple. At the end of the school year, there were seven students signed up for the EMT program. Six students were seniors and one was a junior. The fact that almost no under class students signed up does not speak well to the future of the program. Students have some classes that they must take to graduate and others they can choose. The district employees cannot compel students to enroll in the EMT program. The main point is that the students have clearly communicated their level of interest in the program.

With one less ambulance in circulation, the residents, students, and teachers are not as safe as they once were.


I believe that the residents of the city should be greatly concerned if optional class choices of high school students have an impact on their overall safety. If this is the case, then there is a much larger problem and it has nothing to do with the public schools. Like any other school district in the United States, we would need to call an ambulance if there is a medical emergency for a student or staff member.

There are other programs that have smaller enrollments. The school district is not being fair by maintaining the AP program and not the EMT program.


Advanced Placement classes are critical and the classes in most, if not all cases, meet high school graduation requirements. In addition, all public schools are required to offer programs for gifted and talented students. At the high school level, AP programs make it possible to meet state requirements. Because AP classes are single classes, the district usually expends only a small stipend of about $5,000 to the AP teachers for each class we offer. While G&T programs are required, there is no requirement to run an EMT program.

Students are missing out on full college scholarships and opportunities at medical schools.


A survey of high school guidance counselors and teachers revealed that there were no students they were aware of who received full or partial EMT scholarships from a college or university or admission to medical school based on their involvement with the EMT program. Montclair State University offers an EMT in Residence Program. This is not a scholarship, but more of a work program. If selected, the resident EMT will be responsible for being on campus and on-call a minimum of one night per week (11 p.m. to 8 a.m.), three day shifts per week (12 hours total), and two weekends per month. In exchange, the EMT is given a room on campus and priority registration rights.

The EMT Program at Hoboken High School is the only one in the state and maybe the nation. How could the BOE end such a unique opportunity for students?


If you consider the information above, I believe that it is easy to understand why it is so unique and why no other comprehensive high schools in New Jersey and maybe even the United States operate an EMT program. There are critical issues that must be considered. The decision to discontinue was a scheduling decision that was handled at the building level in combination with other concerns. The Hoboken Board of Education did not have anything to do with the decision to discontinue the program. Given the above, many people would probably question if it is reasonable for a local board of education to take on such a responsibility.

I am hopeful that this letter clears up at least some misperceptions about why the school district would not continue the EMT program. While the intent of the program was noble and worthwhile from the day it started, there are important issues that must be considered. Nobody wants to discontinue a program unless it is necessary.

Sincerely,
Mark Toback Superintendent of Schools 






Talking Ed Note: BoE trustee Ruth McAllister added via email:

"For a small high school, Hoboken High is fortunate to be able to offer a wide variety of interesting electives: Culinary Arts, Forensics, Construction, Graphic Arts, Drama to name a few.  The EMT program was one of these choices.  When some classes are full and others are not, administrators have to make decision about where to put resources in order to best serve our students."